You've done the research. You've read the guild data. You know who you think is winning Best Picture. But what would your predictions actually pay out at today's market odds?
The Payout Simulator answers that question across all 19 Oscar categories.
What the Payout Simulator Does
Pick a winner in each category and the simulator calculates your total payout based on live market odds from Kalshi. It's not a betting platform. It's a modeling tool that shows you what your convictions are worth in dollar terms.
The tool covers all 19 categories the Academy votes on, split into the Big 8 (Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay) and 11 Technical categories (Cinematography, Film Editing, Visual Effects, and the rest). Each category pulls real-time odds so your payout estimate reflects what the market thinks right now, not last week.
You can pick manually or let one of the built-in strategies do the work. More on that below.
Key Features
Pick Across All 19 Categories
Most Oscar pool tools cover the Big 8 and call it a day. This one includes every category the Academy votes on. Best Sound matters. Best Costume Design matters. Makeup and Hairstyling has produced genuine upsets. The simulator treats all 19 categories as what they are: opportunities to find value.
Each category shows every nominee with their current market odds, so you can see exactly what you're getting into before you pick.
Auto-Pick Strategies
Don't want to research all 19 categories manually? The strategy engine picks for you based on different approaches:
Favorites picks the frontrunner in every category. Simple. If the market says Jessie Buckley at 72% for Best Actress, she's your pick. This strategy wins the most individual categories but pays out less per correct pick because you're buying favorites.
Contrarian goes the other direction. It picks underdogs across the board. Most of these picks will lose. But when they hit, the payout is large. This is the strategy for people who want to win an Oscar pool by being different from everyone else.
Critics' Choice follows the critics' consensus picks. Critics and Academy voters don't always agree (67% correlation for Best Picture), but critics tend to identify quality early.
Guilds follows guild award winners. DGA winner gets your Best Director pick. PGA winner gets Best Picture. SAG winners fill the acting categories. Given the 80-95% correlation rates, this is the data-driven approach.
Momentum tracks which nominees have been gaining in the markets. Rising odds often signal new information the market is pricing in, like a strong festival showing or a guild nomination.
Live Payout Calculations
Every time you make a pick, the total payout recalculates using live market odds. The number you see reflects what a $1 contract on each pick would return if every selection wins.
This isn't theoretical math. It's based on the actual prices people are paying on Kalshi right now.
How to Use It
Step 1: Choose Your Approach
Start with the Big 8 categories. These are the ones most people care about and have the deepest markets. Pick manually if you have strong opinions, or select a strategy to auto-fill.
Step 2: Fill in the Technical Categories
The 11 technical categories are where Oscar pools are won and lost. Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing often follow the Best Picture winner. Best Visual Effects and Best Sound tend to favor blockbusters. Use the strategy buttons or pick based on your own research.
Step 3: Review Your Total Payout
Once all 19 categories are filled, check your total estimated payout. Compare it against the Favorites strategy to see how much more (or less) your picks would pay. If your total is higher, you're making more contrarian picks. If it's lower, you're mostly agreeing with the market.
Real Example
Say it's February 2026 and the DGA just announced Paul Thomas Anderson as their winner. You believe the DGA data (88% correlation) and want to build your picks around an "One Battle After Another" sweep.
You select PTA for Director, DiCaprio for Actor (the film's lead), and One Battle for Picture. The simulator shows these three picks at current odds would pay modestly because they're all favorites. But then you go contrarian in Supporting Actress, picking Teyana Taylor over Ariana Grande. That single pick at +500 odds dramatically changes your total payout profile.
The simulator lets you see that tradeoff in real time. How much payout are you giving up by picking chalk in most categories? How much do you gain by finding one or two upset picks?
Guest vs. Pro Access
Without an account, you can try the simulator with 3 categories (Best Director, Best Actor, Best International Feature) and 2 strategies (Contrarian and Critics' Choice). It's enough to get the feel.
With a free account, you unlock all 19 categories and the full strategy library including Favorites, Guilds, and Momentum. No payment required. Just sign up.
Related Tools
- Position Calculator: If the simulator shows you a pick worth making, the calculator tells you exactly what it costs to execute, including slippage estimates.
- Whale Activity Alerts: Watch for large trades that might shift the odds on your picks before Oscar night.
Key Takeaways
- The Payout Simulator covers all 19 Oscar categories, not just the Big 8
- Five auto-pick strategies let you compare different approaches (favorites, contrarian, critics, guilds, momentum)
- Live odds from Kalshi mean your payout estimate reflects the current market
- Guest users get 3 categories and 2 strategies free. A free account unlocks everything.
- The real value is seeing how individual contrarian picks change your total payout profile