Predict Oscars to Win.
Leave the Magic for the Movies.
A collection of tools to help you finish the night with an award of your own.
LatestYES on Polymarket: John Malkovich, to win Best Actor.1,746 shares at 45¢ each.12 Oct, 4:53 AM, New York time.YESJohn MalkovichBest ActorPolymarket12 Oct
Oscar Odds
The 2027 race
Each number is a market-implied chance: the price of a contract that pays $1 if the contender wins, read as a percentage (49¢ reads as 49%).24h: the change of the number over 24 hours, from the site's saved prices (none when either end is thin). 7d: the change since the close 7 days ago. On wider screens Best Picture shows the last 30 days as a small line.A gap chip marks Kalshi and Polymarket prices more than 4 points apart; tap it for both.2027 Oscars · 99th Academy Awards.Nominations are announced on 21 January 2027. The ceremony is on 14 March 2027.Kalshi $4.0M · Polymarket $656kSince the markets opened, in all 21 categories, “to win” and “to be nominated” together.Dollars traded: what buyers paid for the side they took (contracts × the price of that side), every trade on Kalshi and Polymarket.Prices recorded by our price feed. The live connection is not active, so the numbers update when the page reloads.Updated 12 Oct, 12:44 UTC.
Average: the simple mean of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices, not a price anyone paid. A thin market is left out when the other platform’s is firm; the number then says “Kalshi only” or “Polymarket only”.Kalshi or Polymarket: one platform, with the price in cents. Side by side: both.They are separate markets with their own rules (ties, deadlines), so prices can differ; a gap chip marks firm prices more than 4 points apart.Your choice applies across the site in this browser.
54 contenders
- #1The Odyssey+2 pts 7d53%+0.8 pts 24h+2 pts 7d
- #2The Black Ball−1 pt 7d28%−0.5 pts 24h−1 pt 7d
- #3Dune: Part Three−0.5 pts 7d10%−0.5 pts 7d
- #4You Can See Everything−1 pt 7d4%−1 pt 7dKalshi only
- #5Artificial+3 pts 7d4%+3 pts 7dKalshi only
- #6Wild Horse Nine−0.4 pts 7d2%−0.4 pts 7d
More races
15 categories
- Best Director#1Christopher Nolan65%+0.3 pts 24h+0.2 pts 7d+4 pts 24h+4 pts 7dKalshi only
- Best Actor#1John Malkovich42%+3 pts 24h+5 pts 7d#2Matt Damon20%−0.5 pts 24h−3 pts 7d
- Best Actress#1Julianne Moore71%+4 pts 7d#2Inde Navarrette16%−1 pt 7d
- Best Supporting Actor#1Paul Giamatti26%−4 pts 24h−15 pts 7d#2John Leguizamo17%−1 pt 7dKalshi only
- Best Supporting Actress#1Anne Hathaway55%+1 pt 7d#2Penélope Cruz24%+0.8 pts 24h+0.7 pts 7d
Biggest movers
The largest changes in the market-implied chance over the last 7 days, in percentage points: from the close 7 days ago to the price now, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket.Markets to win and to be nominated with at least $1,000 traded in the period. Left out: thin markets, moves under a point, and a number that stood on one platform then and on both now, or the other way.“Kalshi only” or “Polymarket only”: the number stands on one platform, because the other’s market is thin, does not list the contender or does not exist in that category.Up
- Tom CruiseBest Actor nomination+24 pts43% to 66%
- WildwoodBest Animated Feature+14 pts57% to 72%
- ArtificialBest Picture nomination · Kalshi only+13 pts45% to 58%
- Club KidBest Picture nomination · Kalshi only+10 pts27% to 37%
- Olivia WildeBest Actress nomination · Kalshi only+10 pts60% to 70%
Down
- Paul GiamattiBest Supporting Actor−15 pts41% to 26%
- ObsessionBest Picture nomination · Kalshi only−10 pts47% to 37%
- Pedro PascalBest Actor nomination−9 pts28% to 18%
- Ryan GoslingBest Actor nomination−9 pts51% to 42%
- The Social ReckoningBest Picture nomination−7 pts14% to 7%
Most traded
Dollars traded: what buyers paid for the side they took (contracts × the price of that side), every trade on Kalshi and Polymarket.Kalshi and Polymarket added together, on the markets the category pages show, over the last 7 days to 12 Oct, 12:45 UTC.The change is against the 7 days just before.Kalshi $224k · Polymarket $77kThe 7 days before: $288k (+5%)traded in 7 days+5%
- The OdysseyBest PictureKalshi $33k · Polymarket $1.7kTo win $31k · to be nominated $3.3kThe 7 days before: $49k (−30%)
- The DebutBest PictureKalshi $22k · Polymarket $604To win $22k · to be nominated $352The 7 days before: $3.9k (×5.7)
- You Can See EverythingBest PictureKalshi $19kTo win $17k · to be nominated $1.9kThe 7 days before: $11k (+82%)
- Tom CruiseBest ActorKalshi $14k · Polymarket $3.7kTo win $10k · to be nominated $7.9kThe 7 days before: $27k (−33%)
- Jeremy StrongBest ActorKalshi $11k · Polymarket $2.3kTo win $11k · to be nominated $1.8kThe 7 days before: $654 (×20)
Whale activity
Trades of $1,000 or more on Kalshi and Polymarket, in every category, in dollars paid for the side taken.Each category page shows its own whale activity.Whale dollars in the last 6 hours: $0 in 0 trades, against $3.2k in an average 6 hours of the last 30 days.Surge: twice the usual or more. Active: one and a half times. Normal: about usual. Quiet: under half.
Big Money Index
The share of all dollars traded this season, on Kalshi and Polymarket, that came in trades of $1,000 or more.Dollars traded: what buyers paid for the side they took (contracts × the price of that side), every trade on Kalshi and Polymarket.Every category, “to win” and “to be nominated” together, since the markets opened.$1.0M in 373 trades of $1,000 or more, of $4.6M traded this season.Kalshi 22.7% of $4.0M · Polymarket 15.2% of $656k
- Last 7 days
- Kalshi $55k · Polymarket $1.6kYES $5.5k · NO $51k18 trades
- Last 30 days
- Kalshi $373k · Polymarket $14kYES $81k · NO $306k142 trades
- This season
- Kalshi $906k · Polymarket $100kYES $287k · NO $719k373 trades
Largest whale trades · last 7 days
- NO on Kalshi: Jeremy Strong, to win Best Actor.6,762 contracts at 99¢ each.7 Oct, 8:57 PM, New York time.NOJeremy StrongBest ActorKalshi7 Oct
- NO on Kalshi: The Debut, to win Best Picture.6,306 contracts at 99¢ each.7 Oct, 3:01 PM, New York time.NOThe DebutBest PictureKalshi7 Oct
- NO on Kalshi: The Debut, to win Best Picture.5,000 contracts at 99¢ each.7 Oct, 3:01 PM, New York time.NOThe DebutBest PictureKalshi7 Oct
- NO on Kalshi: The Debut, to win Best Picture.5,000 contracts at 99¢ each.7 Oct, 3:01 PM, New York time.NOThe DebutBest PictureKalshi7 Oct
- NO on Kalshi: You Can See Everything, to win Best Picture.4,631 contracts at 96¢ each.6 Oct, 9:35 AM, New York time.NOYou Can See EverythingBest PictureKalshi6 Oct
Podcast buzz
Episodes of 28 film and awards podcasts that named each film or person in the last 30 days (in what was said, or in the title and notes until an episode is transcribed), whatever the context.Shows: The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town.Last read 6 Oct.A mention is not a prediction or a recommendation.last 30 days
- 1DiggerBest Picture1 in the last 7 days.Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast, 5 Oct, “Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday”.
- 2Tom CruiseBest Actor1 in the last 7 days.Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast, 5 Oct, “Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday”.
- 3The Black BallBest Picture1 in the last 7 days.Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast, 5 Oct, “Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday”.
- 4I Play RockyBest Picture1 in the last 7 days.Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast, 5 Oct, “Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday”.
- 5You Can See EverythingBest Picture1 in the last 7 days.Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast, 5 Oct, “Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday”.
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
Awards Calendar
Road to Oscar Night
Next Event
Oscar shortlists
Tue, Dec 15
64
days away
Upcoming
Critics Choice Awards
Sun, Jan 3
Golden Globes
Sun, Jan 10
Oscar nominations
Thu, Jan 21
DGA Awards
Sat, Jan 30
Writers Guild Awards
Sat, Feb 13
PGA Awards
Sat, Feb 27
Actor Awards
Sun, Feb 28
99th Academy Awards
Sun, Mar 14
Upcoming
Critics Choice Awards
Sun, Jan 3
Golden Globes
Sun, Jan 10
Oscar nominations
Thu, Jan 21
DGA Awards
Sat, Jan 30
Writers Guild Awards
Sat, Feb 13
PGA Awards
Sat, Feb 27
Actor Awards
Sun, Feb 28
99th Academy Awards
Sun, Mar 14
Look at the Historical DataHow often each guild’s winner went on to win the Oscar. Open a figure for the years it counts.Source: DGA Awards 1949-2025, PGA Awards 1990-2025, Actor Awards (SAG Awards until 2025) 1995-2025.
Since 1949, the Directors Guild winner takes the Oscar (69/77 years).
DGA → Director
Since 1990, the Producers Guild winner takes Best Picture (25/35 years).
PGA → Picture
Since 1995, Actor Awards (formerly SAG) winners take the Oscar 77% for Actor, 68% for Actress.
Actor Awards → Acting
The Receipts
Guilds vs. Oscars
Each year’s guild winner beside the Oscar winner: gold where the Oscar went to the guild’s winner, red where it went elsewhere.Directors Guild (DGA) since 1949, Producers Guild (PGA) since 1990, Actor Awards (formerly SAG) since 1995. A middle dot marks a year before a guild gave its award.| Year | DGA Winner | Oscar Director | PGA Winner | Oscar Picture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Paul Thomas Anderson | Paul Thomas Anderson | One Battle After Another | One Battle After Another |
| 2025 | Sean Baker | Sean Baker | Anora | Anora |
| 2024 | Christopher Nolan | Christopher Nolan | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | The Daniels | The Daniels | Everything Everywhere All at Once | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | Jane Campion | Jane Campion | CODA | CODA |
Your Toolkit
Tools for Following the Oscar Markets
Live Odds
Kalshi and Polymarket prices, 21 categories
Market Insights
Chance if nominated, money flow, coverage
Position Calculator
Slippage and payout for an amount you choose
Payout Simulator
See what your ballot pays at live odds
Awards Calendar
Every ceremony and key deadline
Whale Alerts
Single trades of $1,000 or more
Guild Guide
How often guild winners went on to win the Oscar
2026 Archive
Last season’s markets and winners
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