2027 Oscar Odds
2027 Oscars · 99th Academy Awards
Kalshi and Polymarket prices for every category as a market-implied chance, the average of the two platforms by default: 21 categories and 324 contenders listed by the markets so far.
Nominations are announced on 21 January 2027. The ceremony is on 14 March 2027.
Prices recorded by our price feed, latest 12 Oct, 23:38 UTC. The live connection is not active.
Best Picture odds movement
Market-implied chance to win for the 5 contenders with the highest average price now, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Numbered pins mark festival and award results announced that day.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.- The Odyssey53%
- The Black Ball28%
- Dune: Part Three10%
- You Can See Everything4%
- Artificial4%
Show the numbers
| Day | The Odyssey · Average | The Black Ball · Average | Dune: Part Three · Average | You Can See Everything · Average | Artificial · Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | 53% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 4% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 51% | 29% | 10% | 5% | 1% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 48% | 26% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 47% | 32% | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 51% | 10% | 14% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | 49% | 12% | 14% | – | 1% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 56% | 10% | 15% | – | 1% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | 56% | 10% | 14% | – | 1% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | 57% | 10% | 13% | – | 1% |
| 10 Aug 2026 | 50% | 8% | 15% | – | 1% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 50% | 5% | 16% | – | 1% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | 49% | 5% | 16% | – | 1% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 48% | 6% | 14% | – | 1% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 37% | 5% | 15% | – | 1% |
| 6 Jul 2026 | 37% | 6% | 16% | – | 1% |
| 29 Jun 2026 | 32% | 5% | 14% | – | 1% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | 36% | 6% | 14% | – | 1% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 34% | 9% | 18% | – | 1% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | 34% | 4% | 13% | – | 1% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 30% | 6% | 13% | – | 1% |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Christopher NolanThe Odyssey | 65% |
| #2 | Javier Calvo and Javier AmbrossiThe Black Ball | 16%Kalshi only |
| #3 | Denis VilleneuveDune: Part Three | 16% |
| #4 | Peter Farrelly | thin7%Polymarket only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | John MalkovichWild Horse Nine | 43% |
| #2 | Matt DamonThe Odyssey | 20% |
| #3 | Andrew ScottPressure | 18% |
| #4 | Tom CruiseDigger | 16% |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Julianne MooreThe Debut | 71% |
| #2 | Inde NavarretteObsession | 16% |
| #3 | Sandra HüllerRose | 5% |
| #4 | Anne HathawayThe Odyssey | 3%Kalshi only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Paul GiamattiThe Statement | 25% |
| #2 | John LeguizamoThe Odyssey | 17%Kalshi only |
| #3 | Robert PattinsonDune: Part Three | 10% |
| #4 | Sam RockwellGood Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die | 9% |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Anne HathawayThe Odyssey | 55% |
| #2 | Penélope CruzThe Bride! | 24% |
| #3 | Amanda SeyfriedThe Testament of Ann Lee | 13%Kalshi only |
| #4 | Inde NavarretteObsession | 9%Kalshi only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | The Odyssey | 64% |
| #2 | Dune: Part Three | 23% |
| #3 | Digger | thin7% |
| #4 | Project Hail Mary | 7% |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Wild Horse Nine | 57% |
| #2 | The Debut | 20% |
| #3 | Digger | 8% |
| #4 | Obsession | 8%Kalshi only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | The Black Ball | 49% |
| #2 | The Invite | 28% |
| #3 | The Odyssey | 13% |
| #4 | Project Hail Mary | 8%Kalshi only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | The Black Ball | 78% |
| #2 | Fjord | 7% |
| #3 | Everytime | thin5%Kalshi only |
| #4 | Possible Love | 5%Polymarket only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | The Odyssey | 57% |
| #2 | Dune: Part Three | 18% |
| #3 | Disclosure Day | thin7% |
| #4 | The Black Ball | 7%Kalshi only |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | You Can See Everything | 61%Kalshi only |
| #2 | NAZA | 34%Kalshi only |
| #3 | Once Upon a Time in Harlem | 9% |
| #4 | One in a Million | 7% |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Werwulf | 29% |
| #2 | The Odyssey | 21% |
| #3 | Digger | 18% |
| #4 | Dune: Part Three | 17% |
| Rank | Contender | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Dune: Part Three | 56% |
| #2 | Project Hail Mary | 27% |
| #3 | The Odyssey | thin13% |
| #4 | Godzilla Minus Zero | thin4% |
| Rank | Contender | Average |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Wildwood | 72% |
| #2 | Toy Story 5 | 12% |
| #3 | Ray Gunn | 11% |
| #4 | Iron Boy | 7%Kalshi only |
| Rank | Contender | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | The Black Ball | thin73% |
| #2 | The Odyssey | 41% |
| #3 | Wild Horse Nine | 12% |
| #4 | Dune: Part Three | 9% |
Market not open yet
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a 2027 Oscars market for these categories so far.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has opened a 2027 Oscars market for this category yet.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has opened a 2027 Oscars market for this category yet.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has opened a 2027 Oscars market for this category yet.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has opened a 2027 Oscars market for this category yet.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has opened a 2027 Oscars market for this category yet.
Market data, not advice. Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations. Each percentage is a market-implied chance: the price of a contract that pays $1, read as a percentage. The pages show the simple mean of the Kalshi and Polymarket prices by default, leaving out a thin market; it is an average of two prices, not a price anyone paid, and a switch shows each platform alone or both side by side. Kalshi and Polymarket are separate markets with their own rules, for example on ties and deadlines, so their prices can differ; a gap of more than 4 points is marked. Kalshi counts trading volume in contracts, Polymarket in shares; each pays $1 if it happens.