Adam Driver
Best Actor contender · Paper Tiger
To win Best Actor
Number 24 of 34 by average priceKalshi1%Polymarketunder 1%
To be nominated for Best Actor
Number 30 of 34 by average priceKalshi4%Polymarket4%
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 0.7% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 0.8% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 0.7% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 0.6% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.8% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.8% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 6% |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 6% |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 6% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 5% |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 12% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 7% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 12% |
| 29 May 2026 | 8% |
Podcast buzz
Named in 2 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days
Screen Talk · 2 Oct
The Big Picture · 28 Sep
Mike, Mike, and Oscar · 18 Aug
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 34 contenders for Best Actor
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
