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MacGuffin2026 Archive

2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026

The 2026 Oscars

The 98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood

This is the frozen record of the 2026 season: the Academy's nominees and winners, with Kalshi's last traded prices on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony, and every daily close from nominations day (22 January 2026). Frozen on 30 September 2026. Nothing on these pages updates.

21

categories with a Kalshi market

110

nominees, every one with its own market

18 of 21

won by the market favorite of 14 March

Winners and final prices, by category

Best Picture

One Battle after Another

Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers

77%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson

One Battle after Another

92%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Actor

Michael B. Jordan

Sinners

54%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley

Hamnet

97%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn

One Battle after Another

77%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan

Weapons

53%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Original Screenplay

Sinners

Written by Ryan Coogler

96%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle after Another

Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

96%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Animated Feature

KPop Demon Hunters

Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong

94%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best International Feature

Sentimental Value

Norway

69%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Documentary Feature

Mr. Nobody against Putin

David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková

23%

Favorite on 14 March: The Perfect Neighbor, 65%

Best Casting

One Battle after Another

Cassandra Kulukundis

16%

Favorite on 14 March: Sinners, 78%

Best Cinematography

Sinners

Autumn Durald Arkapaw

21%

Favorite on 14 March: One Battle after Another, 78%

Best Film Editing

One Battle after Another

Andy Jurgensen

85%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein

Kate Hawley

90%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein

Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

94%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Production Design

Frankenstein

Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

91%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Original Score

Sinners

Ludwig Goransson

94%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Original Song

Golden

from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park

86%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Sound

F1

Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta

79%

Market favorite on 14 March

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

94%

Market favorite on 14 March

The market favorite lost in 3 categories: Best Documentary Feature, Best Casting and Best Cinematography.

How to read these numbers

  • Final price is the last traded price on Kalshi during 14 March 2026, New York time. 77% means a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won last traded at 77 cents.
  • Nominations day is the last traded price on 22 January 2026, the day the Academy announced the nominees.
  • Volume is the number of contracts traded over the life of each market, as Kalshi counts it, and is shown as contracts. Each contract paid $1 if the nominee won, but the money actually paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure.
  • Names are the Academy's, exactly as it lists them. Kalshi's own spelling is kept in the data files.

Looking for this season? Current Oscar odds.

Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.

A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.