2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Oscars 2026 Prediction Signals
During the 2026 season this page followed large trades and breaking news on Oscar prediction markets: whale trades of $1,000 or more, shark trades of $500 or more, news signals and daily market summaries.
Biggest moves · nominations day to 14 March 2026
Last traded price on 22 January 2026, when the nominations were announced, against the last traded price on 14 March, the day before the ceremony.
| Nominee | 22 Jan | 14 Mar | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean PennBest Supporting Actor | 19% | 77% | +58 pts | Won |
| One Battle after AnotherBest Cinematography | 26% | 78% | +52 pts | Did not win |
| Michael B. JordanBest Actor | 8% | 54% | +46 pts | Won |
| Stellan SkarsgårdBest Supporting Actor | 61% | 15% | -46 pts | Did not win |
| Timothée ChalametBest Actor | 76% | 35% | -41 pts | Did not win |
| Teyana TaylorBest Supporting Actress | 66% | 26% | -40 pts | Did not win |
| Amy MadiganBest Supporting Actress | 17% | 53% | +36 pts | Won |
| SinnersBest Cinematography | 56% | 21% | -35 pts | Won |
| One Battle after AnotherBest Film Editing | 56% | 85% | +29 pts | Won |
| Wunmi MosakuBest Supporting Actress | 6% | 20% | +14 pts | Did not win |
Most traded nominee markets
Contracts traded over the life of each market, as Kalshi counts volume: a count of contracts, not dollars. Each contract paid $1 if it won; the money paid for them was less.
| Nominee | Contracts | 14 Mar | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael B. JordanBest Actor | 6.79M | 54% | Won |
| SinnersBest Picture | 6.34M | 21% | Did not win |
| Timothée ChalametBest Actor | 5.76M | 35% | Did not win |
| One Battle after AnotherBest Picture | 5.04M | 77% | Won |
| HamnetBest Picture | 4.96M | 3% | Did not win |
| Leonardo DiCaprioBest Actor | 4.55M | 7% | Did not win |
| Wagner MouraBest Actor | 4.08M | 6% | Did not win |
| Ethan HawkeBest Actor | 3.37M | 2% | Did not win |
| Marty SupremeBest Picture | 2.91M | 2% | Did not win |
| Ryan CooglerBest Director | 2.89M | 9% | Did not win |
The 2026 archive · All 2026 winners
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.