Javier Bardem
Best Actor contender · The Beloved
To win Best Actor
Number 27 of 34 by average priceKalshinot listedPolymarketunder 1%
To be nominated for Best Actor
Number 19 of 34 by average priceKalshi10%Polymarket5%Thin market: nobody bidding or nobody selling, a wide gap between buy and sell offers, or little trading, so a small amount of money can move this price.
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | under 1% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | under 1% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | under 1% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 0.5% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 0.8% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 1% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | under 1% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 1% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 6% |
Podcast buzz
Named in 1 episode of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 1 in the last 7
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 4 Oct
The Big Picture · 8 Sep
Mike, Mike, and Oscar · 13 Aug
Biutiful - The Saddest Movie Ever - BirdMike pt. 4 - Ep 547 (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 34 contenders for Best Actor
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
