Penélope Cruz
Best Actress contender · The Invite
To win Best Actress
Number 14 of 30 by average priceKalshi1%Polymarketnot listed
To be nominated for Best Actress
Number 25 of 30 by Kalshi pricePrice history
Market-implied chance to win, Kalshi at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2026 | 1% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 1% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | 1% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 1% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | 2% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 17 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 10 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | 2% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 3% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 2% |
| 6 Jul 2026 | 9% |
| 29 Jun 2026 | 9% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | 9% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 9% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | 9% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | 9% |
| 25 May 2026 | 9% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 7 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 2 in the last 7
Circuit Gays · 5 Oct
Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
The Town · 5 Oct
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
The Town · 24 Sep
Jeffrey Katzenberg on Why Hollywood Must Embrace AI(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Lights Camera What’s The Action? · 24 Sep
Oscars 2027 Betting: The Odyssey vs La Bola Negra(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Awards Chatter · 24 Sep
Penélope Cruz - 'La Bola Negra,' 'Bunker' & 'The Invite' [LIVE](audio) (opens in a new tab)
The Big Picture · 22 Sep
The Big Picture · 8 Sep
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 30 contenders for Best Actress
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
