Paweł Pawlikowski
Best Director contender · Fatherland
To win Best Director
No price yetKalshinot listedPolymarketnot listed
To be nominated for Best Director
Number 19 of 33 by Kalshi pricePrice history
Market-implied chance to be nominated, Kalshi at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Numbered pins mark festival and award results announced that day.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 6% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 8% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 9% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 7% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 9% |
| 3 Sep 2026 | 6% |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 13% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | 10% |
| 13 Aug 2026 | 9% |
| 6 Aug 2026 | 10% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 9% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 21% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 19% |
| 9 Jul 2026 | 21% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 33% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | 33% |
| 18 Jun 2026 | 33% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 33% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | 33% |
| 28 May 2026 | 34% |
Podcast buzz
Not named in the last 30 days. Earlier episodes:
Oscars Outsider · 14 Jul
The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions) (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 33 contenders for Best Director
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
