Disclosure Day
Best Picture contender
To win Best Picture
Number 40 of 54 by average priceKalshi1%Polymarketunder 1%
To be nominated for Best Picture
Number 46 of 54 by average priceKalshi4%Polymarket3%
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.5% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 0.5% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | 0.7% |
| 2 Sep 2026 | 0.8% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 1% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 2% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 15 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 8 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 1% |
| 24 Jun 2026 | 1% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 1% |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 2% |
| 3 Jun 2026 | 5% |
| 27 May 2026 | 8% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 2 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 1 in the last 7
Circuit Gays · 5 Oct
Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
The Big Picture · 11 Sep
The Town · 4 Sep
The 2026 Summer Box Office Winners, Losers, and Head-Scratchers(audio) (opens in a new tab)
The Rolling Tape · 26 Aug
The Awards Tape: 2027 Oscar Contenders Draft Final Rosters(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Awards Radar: The Podcast · 2 Jul
'Disclosure Day' & First Half of the Year Film Highlights (opens in a new tab)
Screen Talk · 19 Jun
Filmspotting · 19 Jun
Disclosure Day: Can Spielberg Make Us Believe Again? | #1069 (opens in a new tab)
Awards Radar: The Podcast · 18 Jun
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 54 contenders for Best Picture
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
