The Odyssey
Best Picture contender
To win Best Picture
Number 1 of 54 by average priceKalshi52%Polymarket52%
To be nominated for Best Picture
Number 1 of 54 by average priceKalshi99%Polymarketover 99%
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 52% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 50% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 50% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 49% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 52% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 52% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 56% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 56% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 56% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 49% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 50% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | 51% |
| 19 Jul 2026 | 47% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 38% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | 30% |
| 28 Jun 2026 | 32% |
| 21 Jun 2026 | 35% |
| 14 Jun 2026 | 33% |
| 7 Jun 2026 | 36% |
| 31 May 2026 | 30% |
Also in the running
- Best Cinematography64%5.5-pt gap between the platforms: Kalshi 67% · Polymarket 62%
- Best Original Screenplaythin2%
- Best Adapted Screenplay15%
- Best Original Score61%11-pt gap between the platforms: Kalshi 66% · Polymarket 56%
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling21%
- Best Visual EffectsthinPolymarket 13%
- Best CastingPolymarket 41%
Podcast buzz
Named in 14 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 3 in the last 7
Awards Chatter · 5 Oct
John Leguizamo - 'The Odyssey' [LIVE](audio) (opens in a new tab)
Circuit Gays · 5 Oct
Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 4 Oct
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
The Big Picture · 2 Oct
Mike, Mike, and Oscar · 1 Oct
Oscars Outsider · 29 Sep
Oscar News, NYFF Buzz & Best Documentary Predictions (opens in a new tab)
The Big Picture · 28 Sep
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 54 contenders for Best Picture
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
