Tony
Best Picture contender
To win Best Picture
Number 42 of 54 by average priceKalshinot listedPolymarketunder 1%Thin market: nobody bidding or nobody selling, a wide gap between buy and sell offers, or little trading, so a small amount of money can move this price.
To be nominated for Best Picture
Number 31 of 54 by average priceKalshi7%Polymarketnot listed
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | under 1% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | under 1% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | under 1% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | under 1% |
| 11 Sep 2026 | under 1% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 1% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 1% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | under 1% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 0.5% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.6% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 4% |
Podcast buzz
Not named in the last 30 days. Earlier episodes:
Prestige Junkie · 25 Aug
The Big Picture · 21 Aug
‘Tony’ and the Top 5 Coming-of-Age Movies, With Matt Johnson!(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Filmspotting · 21 Aug
The End of Oak Street, plus Tony and Late Fame | #1077 (opens in a new tab)
Screen Talk · 14 Aug
Kermode & Mayo’s Take · 13 Aug
THE END OF OAK STREET: “Why does it exist?” + SIAN CLIFFORD on LADY(audio) (opens in a new tab)
Screen Talk · 31 Jul
Awards Radar: The Podcast · 16 Jul
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 54 contenders for Best Picture
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
