2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Adapted Screenplay
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
One Battle after Another won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 96%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
One Battle after Another
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Nominations day 86% · 375K contracts traded
Hamnet
Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell
Nominations day 8% · 394K contracts traded
Train Dreams
Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Nominations day 4% · 146K contracts traded
Bugonia
Screenplay by Will Tracy
Nominations day 4% · 191K contracts traded
Frankenstein
Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
Nominations day 3% · 169K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Adapted Screenplay 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | One Battle after Another | Hamnet | Train Dreams | Bugonia | Frankenstein |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 86% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| 23 Jan | 86% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| 24 Jan | 90% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 25 Jan | 91% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 90% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 90% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 28 Jan | 89% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 91% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| 30 Jan | 90% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 89% | 9% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 1 Feb | 88% | 10% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 2 Feb | 86% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 3 Feb | 86% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 4 Feb | 86% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 5 Feb | 86% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| 6 Feb | 86% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 7 Feb | 85% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 8 Feb | 85% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 Feb | 88% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 86% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 Feb | 90% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 12 Feb | 90% | 8% | · | 1% | 2% |
| 13 Feb | 89% | 6% | 2% | · | 3% |
| 14 Feb | 89% | 8% | · | 2% | 3% |
| 15 Feb | 89% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| 16 Feb | 88% | 8% | 2% | · | 4% |
| 17 Feb | 89% | 8% | 1% | · | 4% |
| 18 Feb | 89% | 9% | · | 1% | 3% |
| 19 Feb | 89% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 20 Feb | 89% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 21 Feb | 89% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| 22 Feb | 93% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 23 Feb | 92% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 24 Feb | 93% | 5% | · | · | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 91% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 26 Feb | 91% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 27 Feb | 91% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 28 Feb | 91% | 7% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 1 Mar | 89% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 2 Mar | 92% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 3 Mar | 92% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 94% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 94% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 94% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 94% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 93% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 95% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 96% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 96% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 95% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 96% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- One Battle after Another96% · 6:21 pm ET
- Hamnet4% · 6:21 pm ET
- Train Dreamsnot recorded
- Bugonianot recorded
- Frankensteinnot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARASPLAY-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (35,646 contracts traded). In all, 1.31M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARASPLAY-26-ONE "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-TIE12,920 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- No Other Choice · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-NOO8,935 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-WIC5,588 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Nuremberg · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-NUR5,284 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wake Up Dead Man · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-WAK1,676 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Ballad of a Small Player · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-BAL374 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-SPR331 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Nouvelle Vague · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-NOU301 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hedda · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-HED235 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Is This Thing On? · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-IST1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Life of Chuck · KXOSCARASPLAY-26-LIF1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.