2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 94%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Frankenstein
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Nominations day 90% · 136K contracts traded
Sinners
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
Nominations day 7% · 120K contracts traded
The Ugly Stepsister
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Nominations day 2% · 53,388 contracts traded
Kokuho
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Nominations day 4% · 43,117 contracts traded
The Smashing Machine
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
Nominations day 4% · 35,201 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Makeup and Hairstyling 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Frankenstein | Sinners | The Ugly Stepsister | Kokuho | The Smashing Machine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 90% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| 23 Jan | 92% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| 24 Jan | 90% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 90% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 26 Jan | 91% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 27 Jan | 87% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 6% |
| 28 Jan | 87% | 5% | · | 1% | 5% |
| 29 Jan | 87% | 7% | · | 4% | · |
| 30 Jan | 86% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% |
| 31 Jan | 86% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| 1 Feb | 88% | 7% | · | 2% | 5% |
| 2 Feb | 87% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| 3 Feb | 88% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| 4 Feb | 87% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| 5 Feb | 84% | 8% | · | 4% | 2% |
| 6 Feb | 83% | 7% | · | 5% | · |
| 7 Feb | 83% | 8% | · | 5% | · |
| 8 Feb | 82% | 9% | 3% | · | 4% |
| 9 Feb | 84% | 11% | 3% | · | · |
| 10 Feb | 88% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| 11 Feb | 88% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| 12 Feb | 90% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| 13 Feb | 88% | 7% | · | · | 2% |
| 14 Feb | 88% | 7% | · | 2% | 2% |
| 15 Feb | 88% | 10% | 2% | · | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 87% | 10% | · | · | 1% |
| 17 Feb | 88% | 11% | 2% | · | · |
| 18 Feb | 86% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 87% | 12% | 3% | · | 1% |
| 20 Feb | 88% | 13% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 21 Feb | 87% | 12% | 3% | · | · |
| 22 Feb | 95% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 23 Feb | 94% | 6% | · | 1% | · |
| 24 Feb | 94% | 6% | · | 1% | |
| 25 Feb | 93% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 94% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| 27 Feb | 91% | 6% | 2% | · | · |
| 28 Feb | 92% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 91% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 87% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 89% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 89% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 89% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 91% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 90% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 89% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 91% | 9% | 3% | 2% | · |
| 10 Mar | 90% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 92% | 9% | 2% | · | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 92% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 94% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 94% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Frankenstein93% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners8% · 6:21 pm ET
- The Ugly Stepsister2% · 5:23 pm ET
- Kokuho2% · 5:01 am ET
- The Smashing Machinenot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARMAH-26 listed 18 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 13 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (16,108 contracts traded). In all, 404K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARMAH-26-FRA "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 13 other markets
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARMAH-26-WIC8,435 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARMAH-26-TIE2,523 contracts · closed 15 Mar
- Bugonia · KXOSCARMAH-26-BUG2,295 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Weapons · KXOSCARMAH-26-WEA1,323 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- 28 Years Later · KXOSCARMAH-26-28Y515 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Marty Supreme · KXOSCARMAH-26-MAR501 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hamnet · KXOSCARMAH-26-HAM468 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- One Battle After Another · KXOSCARMAH-26-ONE43 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- After the Hunt · KXOSCARMAH-26-AFT1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Christy · KXOSCARMAH-26-CHR1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Die, My Love · KXOSCARMAH-26-DIE1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Highest 2 Lowest · KXOSCARMAH-26-HIG1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Kiss of the Spider Woman · KXOSCARMAH-26-KIS1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Notes
- The Ugly Stepsister: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
- Kokuho: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.