2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Original Score
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Music (Original Score)
Sinners won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 94%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Sinners
Ludwig Goransson
Nominations day 87% · 181K contracts traded
One Battle after Another
Jonny Greenwood
Nominations day 10% · 150K contracts traded
Hamnet
Max Richter
Nominations day 2% · 97,964 contracts traded
Bugonia
Jerskin Fendrix
Nominations day 1% · 74,596 contracts traded
Frankenstein
Alexandre Desplat
Nominations day 3% · 35,838 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Original Score 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Sinners | One Battle after Another | Hamnet | Bugonia | Frankenstein |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 87% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 23 Jan | 92% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 2% |
| 24 Jan | 87% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 25 Jan | 90% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 26 Jan | 89% | 9% | · | 6% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 88% | 9% | 6% | 2% | · |
| 28 Jan | 88% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 92% | 8% | 1% | 26% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 89% | 9% | · | 2% | · |
| 31 Jan | 89% | 9% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 Feb | 89% | 9% | 1% | 2% | · |
| 2 Feb | 88% | 9% | · | 3% | · |
| 3 Feb | 88% | 9% | 1% | 3% | · |
| 4 Feb | 89% | 10% | · | 3% | · |
| 5 Feb | 88% | · | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 88% | 10% | · | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 90% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 90% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 91% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 90% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 88% | 10% | 1% | 17% | 1% |
| 12 Feb | 87% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| 13 Feb | 87% | 8% | · | · | 2% |
| 14 Feb | 88% | 9% | 2% | 2% | · |
| 15 Feb | 87% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 16 Feb | 88% | 8% | · | · | · |
| 17 Feb | 88% | 8% | 2% | · | · |
| 18 Feb | 88% | 9% | · | 2% | · |
| 19 Feb | 89% | 9% | 1% | · | · |
| 20 Feb | 87% | 9% | 3% | · | |
| 21 Feb | 88% | · | · | 1% | |
| 22 Feb | 93% | 6% | 3% | 2% | · |
| 23 Feb | 93% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 93% | 4% | · | 2% | 1% |
| 25 Feb | 94% | 3% | · | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 93% | 5% | 1% | 2% | |
| 27 Feb | 94% | 6% | · | 2% | · |
| 28 Feb | 93% | 6% | · | · | · |
| 1 Mar | 94% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 92% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 95% | 5% | 2% | 2% | · |
| 4 Mar | 93% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 93% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 91% | 7% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 7 Mar | 91% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 93% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 93% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 94% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 94% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 94% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 94% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 94% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Sinners95% · 6:21 pm ET
- One Battle after Another6% · 6:21 pm ET
- Hamnet2% · 3:25 am ET
- Bugonianot recorded
- Frankensteinnot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARSCORE-26 listed 21 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 16 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (20,382 contracts traded). In all, 559K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARSCORE-26-SIN "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 16 other markets
- F1 · KXOSCARSCORE-26-F15,200 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Marty Supreme · KXOSCARSCORE-26-MAR4,064 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARSCORE-26-WIC3,234 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARSCORE-26-TIE2,370 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Tron: Ares · KXOSCARSCORE-26-TRO2,081 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Avatar: Fire and Ash · KXOSCARSCORE-26-AVA1,670 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Sirât · KXOSCARSCORE-26-SIR1,242 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jay Kelly · KXOSCARSCORE-26-JAY234 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hedda · KXOSCARSCORE-26-HED94 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Nuremberg · KXOSCARSCORE-26-NUR94 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Truth and Treason · KXOSCARSCORE-26-TRU94 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Captain America: Brave New World · KXOSCARSCORE-26-CAP1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Diane Warren: Relentless · KXOSCARSCORE-26-DIA1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- A House of Dynamite · KXOSCARSCORE-26-HOU1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Train Dreams · KXOSCARSCORE-26-TRA1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery · KXOSCARSCORE-26-WAK1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.