2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Madigan won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 53%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Amy Madigan
Weapons
Nominations day 17% · 1.52M contracts traded
Teyana Taylor
One Battle after Another
Nominations day 66% · 934K contracts traded
Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
Nominations day 6% · 730K contracts traded
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
Nominations day 10% · 658K contracts traded
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
Nominations day 3% · 374K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Supporting Actress 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Amy Madigan | Teyana Taylor | Wunmi Mosaku | Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | Elle Fanning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 17% | 66% | 6% | 10% | 3% |
| 23 Jan | 21% | 67% | 5% | 9% | 2% |
| 24 Jan | 20% | 67% | 5% | 9% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 18% | 70% | 5% | 9% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 18% | 70% | 4% | 9% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 11% | 76% | 5% | 9% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 13% | 74% | 5% | 10% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 13% | 75% | 4% | 9% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 14% | 75% | 4% | 8% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 14% | 74% | 4% | 9% | 1% |
| 1 Feb | 15% | 74% | 3% | 8% | 1% |
| 2 Feb | 17% | 72% | 4% | 7% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 17% | 71% | 4% | 7% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 17% | 70% | 4% | 6% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 18% | 69% | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| 6 Feb | 20% | 68% | 3% | 6% | 2% |
| 7 Feb | 19% | 68% | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 19% | 69% | 3% | 7% | 2% |
| 9 Feb | 19% | 70% | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| 10 Feb | 19% | 71% | 4% | 6% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 21% | 71% | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| 12 Feb | 23% | 70% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 21% | 70% | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| 14 Feb | 22% | 70% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 15 Feb | 20% | 71% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| 16 Feb | 20% | 71% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| 17 Feb | 20% | 72% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 18 Feb | 19% | 73% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 20% | 72% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 20 Feb | 20% | 72% | 3% | 6% | 2% |
| 21 Feb | 20% | 71% | 2% | 5% | 2% |
| 22 Feb | 21% | 56% | 21% | 3% | 2% |
| 23 Feb | 18% | 53% | 25% | 3% | 2% |
| 24 Feb | 18% | 52% | 26% | 2% | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 18% | 52% | 23% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 20% | 51% | 23% | 2% | 2% |
| 27 Feb | 29% | 48% | 21% | 2% | 2% |
| 28 Feb | 31% | 47% | 21% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 39% | 29% | 27% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 42% | 30% | 24% | 4% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 42% | 31% | 23% | 4% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 44% | 32% | 19% | 4% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 44% | 33% | 22% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 44% | 32% | 24% | 3% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 43% | 32% | 22% | 4% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 43% | 30% | 24% | 4% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 46% | 28% | 24% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 52% | 26% | 21% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 52% | 26% | 20% | 3% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 46% | 29% | 19% | 4% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 50% | 29% | 19% | 5% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 53% | 26% | 20% | 4% | 2% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Amy Madigan56% · 6:21 pm ET
- Teyana Taylor26% · 6:21 pm ET
- Wunmi Mosaku19% · 6:21 pm ET
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas3% · 6:21 pm ET
- Elle Fanning2% · 12:15 pm ET
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARSUPACTR-26 listed 17 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 12 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (368K contracts traded). In all, 4.58M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-AMY "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 12 other markets
- Ariana Grande · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-ARI155K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Odessa A'zion · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-ODE111K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-TIE34,397 contracts · closed 15 Mar
- Gwyneth Paltrow · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-GWE28,960 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Glenn Close · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-GLE17,080 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Chase Infiniti · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-CHA10,782 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Emily Blunt · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-EMI3,675 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Laura Dern · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-LAU2,511 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Ayo Edebiri · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-AYO1,785 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Rebecca Ferguson · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-REB1,184 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jennifer Lopez · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-JEN1,076 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Mari Yamamoto · KXOSCARSUPACTR-26-MAR1,028 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.