The Black Ball
Best Picture contenderListed on Polymarket as La Bola Negra.
To win Best Picture
Number 2 of 54 by average priceKalshi28%Polymarket28%
To be nominated for Best Picture
Number 2 of 54 by average priceKalshi97%Polymarket94%
Price history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Numbered pins mark festival and award results announced that day.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 28% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 30% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | 27% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | 17% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | 11% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | 12% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | 10% |
| 22 Aug 2026 | 8% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 9% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | 8% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 5% |
| 25 Jul 2026 | 5% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | 7% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 4% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 6% |
| 27 Jun 2026 | 5% |
| 20 Jun 2026 | 5% |
| 13 Jun 2026 | 4% |
| 6 Jun 2026 | 5% |
| 30 May 2026 | 8% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 22 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 4 in the last 7
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct
Circuit Gays · 5 Oct
Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
The Town · 5 Oct
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 4 Oct
Academy Watch · 3 Oct
Mike, Mike, and Oscar · 2 Oct
Digger Oscars Profile - This Could've Been an Email 10/3/26 (opens in a new tab)
Screen Talk · 2 Oct
The Big Picture · 2 Oct
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 54 contenders for Best Picture
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
