2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Director
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Directing
Paul Thomas Anderson won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 92%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle after Another
Nominations day 88% · 1.63M contracts traded
Ryan Coogler
Sinners
Nominations day 9% · 2.89M contracts traded
Chloé Zhao
Hamnet
Nominations day 4% · 1.27M contracts traded
Josh Safdie
Marty Supreme
Nominations day 2% · 550K contracts traded
Joachim Trier
Sentimental Value
Nominations day 1% · 293K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Director 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Paul Thomas Anderson | Ryan Coogler | Chloé Zhao | Josh Safdie | Joachim Trier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 88% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 Jan | 87% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 87% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 86% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 86% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 85% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 85% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 84% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 82% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 84% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 Feb | 85% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Feb | 85% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 85% | 13% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 4 Feb | 84% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 84% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 83% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 87% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 87% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 89% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 87% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 89% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Feb | 89% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 89% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Feb | 88% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 88% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 88% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 17 Feb | 89% | 10% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 18 Feb | 89% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 88% | 10% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 20 Feb | 90% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 21 Feb | 89% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 22 Feb | 93% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 90% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 90% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 Feb | 90% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 91% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 90% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 91% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 92% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 92% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 91% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 91% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 92% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 90% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 89% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 90% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 90% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 91% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 91% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 91% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 92% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 92% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Paul Thomas Anderson94% · 6:21 pm ET
- Ryan Coogler6% · 6:21 pm ET
- Chloé Zhao2% · 12:15 pm ET
- Josh Safdienot recorded
- Joachim Triernot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARDIR-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (170K contracts traded). In all, 6.80M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARDIR-26-PAU "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Jafar Panahi · KXOSCARDIR-26-JAF68,865 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Guillermo Del Toro · KXOSCARDIR-26-GUI39,890 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARDIR-26-TIE31,316 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Yorgos Lanthimos · KXOSCARDIR-26-YOR12,246 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Kathryn Bigelow · KXOSCARDIR-26-KAT6,838 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Park Chan-wook · KXOSCARDIR-26-PAR5,863 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jon M. Chu · KXOSCARDIR-26-JON2,420 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Kleber Mendonca Filho · KXOSCARDIR-26-KLE1,614 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Benny Safdie · KXOSCARDIR-26-BEN767 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hikari · KXOSCARDIR-26-HIK187 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Derek Cianfrance · KXOSCARDIR-26-DER1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.