2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Picture
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026
One Battle after Another won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 77%. It was the market favorite.
10 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
One Battle after Another
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
Nominations day 73% · 5.04M contracts traded
Sinners
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers
Nominations day 21% · 6.34M contracts traded
Hamnet
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
Nominations day 5% · 4.96M contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
Nominations day 3% · 2.91M contracts traded
Bugonia
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
Nominations day 1% · 1.67M contracts traded
Sentimental Value
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers
Nominations day 1% · 1.00M contracts traded
Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers
Nominations day 1% · 994K contracts traded
The Secret Agent
Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
Nominations day 1% · 552K contracts traded
Train Dreams
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers
Nominations day 1% · 514K contracts traded
F1
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Nominations day 1% · 423K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Picture 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | One Battle after Another | Sinners | Hamnet | Marty Supreme | Bugonia | Sentimental Value | Frankenstein | The Secret Agent | Train Dreams | F1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 73% | 21% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 Jan | 71% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 70% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 69% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 67% | 25% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 68% | 25% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 69% | 25% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 70% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 30 Jan | 70% | 22% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 68% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1 Feb | 71% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Feb | 69% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 69% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 70% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 71% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 70% | 18% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 73% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 73% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 74% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 74% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 74% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Feb | 74% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 75% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Feb | 73% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 74% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 73% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 17 Feb | 74% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 18 Feb | 74% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 73% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 20 Feb | 74% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 21 Feb | 74% | 15% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 22 Feb | 78% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 78% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 78% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 25 Feb | 78% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 78% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 Feb | 76% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 76% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 81% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 80% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 78% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 77% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 78% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 73% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 73% | 23% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 75% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 73% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 75% | 23% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 74% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 76% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 76% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 77% | 21% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- One Battle after Another78% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners22% · 6:21 pm ET
- Hamnet3% · 6:21 pm ET
- Marty Supreme2% · 12:15 pm ET
- Bugonianot recorded
- Sentimental Valuenot recorded
- Frankensteinnot recorded
- The Secret Agentnot recorded
- Train Dreamsnot recorded
- F1not recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARPIC-26 listed 19 markets: one for each of the 10 nominees and 9 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (980K contracts traded). In all, 25.39M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARPIC-26-ONE "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 9 other markets
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARPIC-26-WIC246K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- No Other Choice · KXOSCARPIC-26-NOO191K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- It Was Just an Accident · KXOSCARPIC-26-ITW185K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARPIC-26-TIE141K contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Avatar: Fire and Ash · KXOSCARPIC-26-AVA127K contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Jay Kelly · KXOSCARPIC-26-JAY40,574 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere · KXOSCARPIC-26-SPRI25,799 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Rental Family · KXOSCARPIC-26-REN17,210 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- A House of Dynamite · KXOSCARPIC-26-AHO6,189 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Notes
- The Secret Agent: In 2026 the site labelled this market "The Secret". Kalshi lists it as "The Secret Agent".
- The Secret Agent: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
- Train Dreams: In 2026 the site labelled this market "Trapped". Kalshi lists it as "Train Dreams".
- Train Dreams: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
- F1: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-22.
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.