2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Documentary Feature
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Documentary Feature Film
Mr. Nobody against Putin won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 23%. The market favorite was The Perfect Neighbor at 65%.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Mr. Nobody against Putin
David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková
Nominations day 15% · 150K contracts traded
The Perfect Neighbor
Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Nominations day 78% · 315K contracts traded
Come See Me in the Good Light
Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
Nominations day 8% · 92,166 contracts traded
The Alabama Solution
Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
Nominations day 7% · 80,830 contracts traded
Cutting through Rocks
Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
Nominations day 14% · 61,828 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Documentary Feature 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Mr. Nobody against Putin | The Perfect Neighbor | Come See Me in the Good Light | The Alabama Solution | Cutting through Rocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 15% | 78% | 8% | 7% | 14% |
| 23 Jan | 23% | 68% | 10% | 11% | 2% |
| 24 Jan | 9% | 70% | 26% | 2% | 3% |
| 25 Jan | 3% | 71% | 14% | 10% | 3% |
| 26 Jan | 5% | 71% | 10% | 7% | 6% |
| 27 Jan | 6% | 70% | 9% | 7% | · |
| 28 Jan | 6% | 69% | 9% | 7% | · |
| 29 Jan | · | 71% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| 30 Jan | 6% | 72% | 12% | 12% | · |
| 31 Jan | 19% | 70% | 17% | · | · |
| 1 Feb | 6% | 67% | 11% | 10% | · |
| 2 Feb | 3% | 69% | 15% | 7% | 2% |
| 3 Feb | 4% | 69% | 14% | 8% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | · | 69% | 14% | 12% | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 4% | 68% | 14% | 8% | · |
| 6 Feb | 4% | 69% | 14% | 8% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 8% | 67% | 13% | 7% | 3% |
| 8 Feb | 7% | 67% | 13% | 11% | 4% |
| 9 Feb | 8% | 69% | 13% | 18% | 4% |
| 10 Feb | 10% | 70% | 19% | 9% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 67% | 13% | 12% | 5% | |
| 12 Feb | 7% | 66% | 12% | 10% | 5% |
| 13 Feb | 7% | 67% | 12% | 7% | · |
| 14 Feb | · | 74% | 9% | 8% | · |
| 15 Feb | 6% | 72% | 9% | 8% | · |
| 16 Feb | 6% | 72% | 9% | 8% | · |
| 17 Feb | 6% | 73% | 9% | 6% | · |
| 18 Feb | 5% | 75% | 9% | 7% | · |
| 19 Feb | 5% | 78% | 9% | 6% | · |
| 20 Feb | 5% | 78% | 9% | 6% | 3% |
| 21 Feb | 5% | 74% | 10% | · | 4% |
| 22 Feb | 20% | 54% | 22% | 5% | 7% |
| 23 Feb | 22% | 46% | 20% | 5% | 3% |
| 24 Feb | 24% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 4% |
| 25 Feb | 24% | 51% | 17% | 4% | 4% |
| 26 Feb | 22% | 51% | 15% | 11% | 4% |
| 27 Feb | 21% | 56% | 12% | 10% | 3% |
| 28 Feb | 24% | 46% | 16% | 9% | 6% |
| 1 Mar | 21% | 60% | 12% | 7% | 7% |
| 2 Mar | 22% | 58% | 11% | 8% | 14% |
| 3 Mar | 23% | 58% | 11% | 4% | 6% |
| 4 Mar | 18% | 64% | 8% | 9% | 4% |
| 5 Mar | 19% | 64% | 8% | 7% | · |
| 6 Mar | 19% | 65% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| 7 Mar | 15% | 65% | 12% | 15% | 4% |
| 8 Mar | 16% | 66% | 10% | 8% | 4% |
| 9 Mar | 16% | 66% | 7% | 8% | · |
| 10 Mar | 18% | 67% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 18% | 63% | 8% | 6% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 20% | 63% | 8% | 6% | 3% |
| 13 Mar | 18% | 66% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 23% | 65% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Mr. Nobody against Putin27% · 6:21 pm ET
- The Perfect Neighbor63% · 6:21 pm ET
- Come See Me in the Good Light6% · 6:21 pm ET
- The Alabama Solution6% · 6:21 pm ET
- Cutting through Rocks2% · 2:01 pm ET
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARDOCU-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (28,004 contracts traded). In all, 728K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARDOCU-26-MRN "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARDOCU-26-TIE14,052 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- 2000 Meters to Andriivka · KXOSCARDOCU-26-2005,415 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow · KXOSCARDOCU-26-MYU3,281 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Cover-Up · KXOSCARDOCU-26-COV2,466 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Apocalypse in the Tropics · KXOSCARDOCU-26-APO2,325 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Seeds · KXOSCARDOCU-26-SEE414 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Coexistence, My Ass! · KXOSCARDOCU-26-COE47 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Folktales · KXOSCARDOCU-26-FOL1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Holding Liat · KXOSCARDOCU-26-HOL1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Mistress Dispeller · KXOSCARDOCU-26-MIS1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Yanuni · KXOSCARDOCU-26-YAN1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.