2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Casting
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Casting
One Battle after Another won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 16%. The market favorite was Sinners at 78%.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
One Battle after Another
Cassandra Kulukundis
Market opened 23 Jan · 126K contracts traded
Sinners
Francine Maisler
Market opened 23 Jan · 368K contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Jennifer Venditti
Market opened 23 Jan · 144K contracts traded
The Secret Agent
Gabriel Domingues
Market opened 23 Jan · 83,794 contracts traded
Hamnet
Nina Gold
Market opened 23 Jan · 52,028 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Casting 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | One Battle after Another | Sinners | Marty Supreme | The Secret Agent | Hamnet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan | 26% | 77% | 4% | · | 2% |
| 24 Jan | 31% | 71% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| 25 Jan | 28% | 70% | 9% | 13% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 16% | 68% | 14% | 6% | 13% |
| 27 Jan | 13% | 68% | 15% | 16% | 2% |
| 28 Jan | 14% | 66% | 14% | 16% | 3% |
| 29 Jan | 16% | 66% | 11% | 5% | · |
| 30 Jan | 31% | 65% | 14% | 5% | 3% |
| 31 Jan | 18% | 74% | 13% | 6% | 3% |
| 1 Feb | 18% | 62% | 13% | 21% | 2% |
| 2 Feb | 20% | 63% | 12% | 6% | · |
| 3 Feb | 21% | 62% | 12% | · | 2% |
| 4 Feb | 20% | 61% | 12% | · | · |
| 5 Feb | 21% | 60% | 13% | 19% | 3% |
| 6 Feb | 22% | 61% | 13% | 18% | 2% |
| 7 Feb | 21% | 59% | 28% | 21% | 3% |
| 8 Feb | 20% | 69% | 12% | 8% | 8% |
| 9 Feb | 38% | 44% | 12% | 8% | 3% |
| 10 Feb | 35% | 54% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| 11 Feb | 34% | 56% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
| 12 Feb | 24% | 61% | 7% | 5% | 3% |
| 13 Feb | 25% | 63% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 Feb | 24% | 63% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| 15 Feb | 25% | 62% | 9% | 4% | · |
| 16 Feb | 24% | 65% | 10% | · | · |
| 17 Feb | 23% | 65% | 10% | 4% | · |
| 18 Feb | 23% | 67% | 11% | 3% | · |
| 19 Feb | 24% | 66% | 10% | 1% | · |
| 20 Feb | 23% | 67% | 11% | 1% | · |
| 21 Feb | 24% | 62% | 11% | 2% | 3% |
| 22 Feb | 37% | 67% | 7% | 7% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 27% | 61% | 11% | 2% | 2% |
| 24 Feb | 27% | 58% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 24% | 60% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| 26 Feb | 23% | 59% | 7% | · | · |
| 27 Feb | 28% | 65% | 6% | 5% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 28% | 63% | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| 1 Mar | 15% | 72% | 11% | 5% | 18% |
| 2 Mar | 12% | 74% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 20% | 68% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| 4 Mar | 16% | 74% | 6% | 6% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 17% | 74% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| 6 Mar | 13% | 75% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| 7 Mar | 13% | 79% | 8% | 4% | 3% |
| 8 Mar | 13% | 79% | 7% | 5% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 16% | 75% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 13% | 76% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| 11 Mar | 16% | 77% | 6% | 5% | 2% |
| 12 Mar | 16% | 76% | 6% | 4% | 3% |
| 13 Mar | 15% | 81% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| 14 Mar | 16% | 78% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARCASTING-26 listed 6 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 1 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (3,812 contracts traded). In all, 777K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARCASTING-26-ONE "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 1 other markets
- Tie · KXOSCARCASTING-26-TIE3,812 contracts · closed 16 Mar
Notes
- Kalshi opened its Casting event on 23 January 2026, the day after nominations, so no Casting market has a nominations-day price.
- One Battle after Another: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-23.
- Sinners: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-23.
- Marty Supreme: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-23.
- The Secret Agent: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-23.
- Hamnet: Kalshi opened this market on 2026-01-23.
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.