2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Film Editing
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Film Editing
One Battle after Another won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 85%. It was the market favorite.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
One Battle after Another
Andy Jurgensen
Nominations day 56% · 299K contracts traded
F1
Stephen Mirrione
Nominations day 20% · 260K contracts traded
Sinners
Michael P. Shawver
Nominations day 18% · 210K contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Nominations day 8% · 105K contracts traded
Sentimental Value
Olivier Bugge Coutté
Nominations day 4% · 54,961 contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Film Editing 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | One Battle after Another | F1 | Sinners | Marty Supreme | Sentimental Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 56% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 4% |
| 23 Jan | 54% | 28% | 12% | 5% | 1% |
| 24 Jan | 58% | 30% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 59% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Jan | 62% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 61% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 28 Jan | 61% | 29% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 29 Jan | 61% | 31% | 8% | 2% | · |
| 30 Jan | 61% | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| 31 Jan | 60% | 30% | 10% | 2% | · |
| 1 Feb | 64% | 26% | 9% | 5% | 1% |
| 2 Feb | 65% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Feb | 62% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Feb | 63% | 28% | 9% | · | 1% |
| 5 Feb | 63% | 27% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Feb | 63% | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 63% | 26% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| 8 Feb | 64% | 26% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 68% | 22% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 65% | 22% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 76% | 15% | 8% | 3% | |
| 12 Feb | 75% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 74% | 22% | 6% | 2% | · |
| 14 Feb | 70% | 22% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 15 Feb | 72% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 69% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 17 Feb | 70% | 23% | 5% | 1% | · |
| 18 Feb | 69% | 22% | 5% | · | · |
| 19 Feb | 68% | 26% | 5% | 2% | · |
| 20 Feb | 68% | 26% | · | 2% | 3% |
| 21 Feb | 65% | 26% | 5% | 2% | · |
| 22 Feb | 79% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 Feb | 77% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 77% | 18% | 6% | 1% | · |
| 25 Feb | 77% | 21% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 26 Feb | 78% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 27 Feb | 77% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 78% | 13% | 16% | 1% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 78% | 19% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 Mar | 76% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 Mar | 76% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 76% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 Mar | 75% | 17% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 Mar | 75% | 16% | 8% | 2% | · |
| 7 Mar | 73% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 8 Mar | 76% | 16% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 Mar | 76% | 15% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 79% | 15% | 8% | 1% | · |
| 11 Mar | 80% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 80% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 84% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 85% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- One Battle after Another82% · 6:21 pm ET
- F110% · 6:21 pm ET
- Sinners8% · 6:21 pm ET
- Marty Supreme2% · 11:32 am ET
- Sentimental Valuenot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCAREDIT-26 listed 17 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 12 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (29,378 contracts traded). In all, 958K contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCAREDIT-26-ONE "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 12 other markets
- A House of Dynamite · KXOSCAREDIT-26-HOU6,259 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- No Other Choice · KXOSCAREDIT-26-NOO4,698 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Avatar: Fire and Ash · KXOSCAREDIT-26-AVA3,849 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Bugonia · KXOSCAREDIT-26-BUG2,985 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Hamnet · KXOSCAREDIT-26-HAM2,729 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCAREDIT-26-TIE2,609 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Frankenstein · KXOSCAREDIT-26-FRA2,293 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- It Was Just an Accident · KXOSCAREDIT-26-ITW1,450 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Perfect Neighbor · KXOSCAREDIT-26-PER1,001 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCAREDIT-26-WIC943 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere · KXOSCAREDIT-26-SPR561 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- The Smashing Machine · KXOSCAREDIT-26-SMA1 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Notes
- F1: In 2026 the site labelled this market "F1: The Movie". Kalshi lists it as "F1".
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.