2026 archive · final odds, 14 March 2026
Best Cinematography
98th Academy Awards · 15 March 2026 · Academy category: Cinematography
Sinners won. Its last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026 was 21%. The market favorite was One Battle after Another at 78%.
5 nominees · final price on 14 March 2026The big number is the last traded price on Kalshi on 14 March 2026, the day before the ceremony. Under each name: the last traded price on nominations day and the volume.Kalshi counts volume in contracts. Each contract paid $1 if it won, but the money paid for the contracts was less, and this record holds no dollar figure, so volume is shown as contracts.
Sinners
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Nominations day 56% · 1.12M contracts traded
One Battle after Another
Michael Bauman
Nominations day 26% · 943K contracts traded
Train Dreams
Adolpho Veloso
Nominations day 12% · 816K contracts traded
Frankenstein
Dan Laustsen
Nominations day 6% · 530K contracts traded
Marty Supreme
Darius Khondji
Nominations day 2% · 229K contracts traded
Daily closing price · 22 January to 14 March 2026
Best Cinematography 2026
Every daily close, as a table
| Date | Sinners | One Battle after Another | Train Dreams | Frankenstein | Marty Supreme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan | 56% | 26% | 12% | 6% | 2% |
| 23 Jan | 55% | 25% | 19% | 3% | 3% |
| 24 Jan | 56% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Jan | 58% | 23% | 17% | 3% | 3% |
| 26 Jan | 66% | 17% | 16% | 2% | 1% |
| 27 Jan | 65% | 18% | 16% | 2% | 2% |
| 28 Jan | 61% | 19% | 18% | 3% | 2% |
| 29 Jan | 61% | 26% | 19% | 3% | 2% |
| 30 Jan | 60% | 21% | 19% | 3% | 2% |
| 31 Jan | 63% | 21% | 18% | 4% | 2% |
| 1 Feb | 63% | 17% | 17% | 4% | 2% |
| 2 Feb | 63% | 18% | 17% | 4% | 2% |
| 3 Feb | 64% | 18% | 17% | 3% | 2% |
| 4 Feb | 69% | 17% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| 5 Feb | 67% | 18% | 13% | 4% | 2% |
| 6 Feb | 67% | 18% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 7 Feb | 59% | 25% | 13% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 Feb | 58% | 31% | 12% | 3% | 1% |
| 9 Feb | 48% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 Feb | 49% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 Feb | 48% | 40% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 Feb | 46% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 1% |
| 13 Feb | 46% | 41% | 14% | 2% | 2% |
| 14 Feb | 47% | 41% | 12% | 3% | · |
| 15 Feb | 46% | 40% | 14% | 2% | 1% |
| 16 Feb | 45% | 40% | 15% | 2% | 1% |
| 17 Feb | 41% | 43% | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| 18 Feb | 37% | 48% | 15% | 2% | 1% |
| 19 Feb | 32% | 52% | 15% | 1% | 1% |
| 20 Feb | 31% | 58% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 Feb | 32% | 54% | 14% | 2% | 2% |
| 22 Feb | 19% | 72% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 23 Feb | 23% | 67% | 12% | 1% | 1% |
| 24 Feb | 21% | 65% | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| 25 Feb | 22% | 65% | 12% | 1% | 2% |
| 26 Feb | 15% | 68% | 12% | 1% | 2% |
| 27 Feb | 17% | 71% | 13% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 Feb | 18% | 67% | 12% | 1% | 1% |
| 1 Mar | 19% | 70% | 12% | 1% | 2% |
| 2 Mar | 19% | 68% | 13% | 3% | 2% |
| 3 Mar | 27% | 65% | 12% | 2% | 1% |
| 4 Mar | 25% | 66% | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| 5 Mar | 27% | 63% | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| 6 Mar | 29% | 60% | 10% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 Mar | 31% | 58% | 9% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 Mar | 30% | 59% | 13% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 Mar | 18% | 75% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 Mar | 22% | 74% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 Mar | 20% | 75% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 Mar | 20% | 76% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 13 Mar | 21% | 76% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 Mar | 21% | 78% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
A dot means no trade that day. A blank means Kalshi returned no daily record for that day.
Ceremony day · before the first award
The lowest price on offer (the ask), as the site's own server recorded it on 15 March 2026, before Kalshi closed the first market of the night at 7:34 pm ET. An ask, not a trade.
- Sinners19% · 6:21 pm ET
- One Battle after Another78% · 6:21 pm ET
- Train Dreams8% · 6:21 pm ET
- Frankensteinnot recorded
- Marty Supremenot recorded
The Kalshi market
Event KXOSCARCINE-26 listed 16 markets: one for each of the 5 nominees and 11 for contenders who were not nominated or for a tie (70,094 contracts traded). In all, 3.71M contracts traded.
Kalshi settled KXOSCARCINE-26-SIN "yes" and every other market "no", on 16 March 2026 (UTC).
The 11 other markets
- Avatar: Fire and Ash · KXOSCARCINE-26-AVA17,171 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- F1: The Movie · KXOSCARCINE-26-F1T16,426 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Tie · KXOSCARCINE-26-TIE13,945 contracts · closed 16 Mar
- Hamnet · KXOSCARCINE-26-HAM7,514 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- No Other Choice · KXOSCARCINE-26-NOO4,221 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Bugonia · KXOSCARCINE-26-BUG3,749 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Wicked: For Good · KXOSCARCINE-26-WIC3,404 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Nouvelle Vague · KXOSCARCINE-26-NOU2,056 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- 28 Years Later · KXOSCARCINE-26-28Y1,476 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Ballad of a Small Player · KXOSCARCINE-26-BAL121 contracts · closed 22 Jan
- Anemone · KXOSCARCINE-26-ANE11 contracts · closed 22 Jan
Sources: the Academy's results page (Internet Archive copy, 20 March 2026) · Kalshi's settled markets and daily prices · the site's own server record of ceremony day. Frozen on 30 September 2026.
A price is the last traded price on Kalshi, read as the market's implied chance: 77% means 77 cents for a contract that paid $1 if the nominee won. Market data, not advice.