Best Adapted Screenplay
Which adaptation will win Best Adapted Screenplay?The Black Ball leads with a 53% market-implied chance, 26 points ahead of The Invite (27%).Biggest move this week: The Social Reckoning, down 12 points (now 4%).
Odds movement
Market-implied chance to win for the 5 contenders with the highest average price now, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.- The Black Ball53%
- The Invite27%
- The Odyssey15%
- Wildwood10%
- Project Hail Mary8%
Show the numbers
| Day | The Black Ball · Average | The Invite · Average | The Odyssey · Average | Wildwood · Average | Project Hail Mary · Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 53% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 6% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 43% | 28% | 20% | 4% | 8% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 37% | 27% | 23% | 5% | 6% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 27% | 29% | 27% | 5% | 6% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 23% | 26% | 27% | 6% | 7% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 25% | 21% | 34% | 5% | 8% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 25% | 17% | 29% | 5% | 6% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 24% | 23% | 31% | 7% | 7% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 24% | 16% | 31% | 2% | 7% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 30% | 11% | 32% | 3% | 6% |
15 contenders
Each number is a market-implied chance: the price of a contract that pays $1 if the adaptation wins, read as a percentage (49¢ reads as 49%).Under it: the change of the number over 24 hours, from the site’s saved prices, in percentage points. On a computer, pointing at a number shows both platforms’ prices in cents.The bar behind a row is its chance on a 0 to 100 scale. Beside the number: the volume traded on the platforms behind it.On wide screens, a small line shows the last 30 days and the change over the last 7.Ranked by the average of Kalshi and Polymarket.Podcast buzz
Most named on awards podcasts in the last 30 days
Talk vs price
Across: episodes that named it in the last 30 days.Up: its price on the market the switch names.Not a prediction or a recommendation.- 1The Black Ball22 episodes · 4 in the last 7 days
Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct · Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday(audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 2The Odyssey14 episodes · 3 in the last 7 days
Latest: Awards Chatter · 5 Oct · John Leguizamo - 'The Odyssey' [LIVE](audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 3The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11 episodes · 1 in the last 7 days
Latest: Circuit Gays · 5 Oct · Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
- 4The Invite9 episodes · 1 in the last 7 days
Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct · Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday(audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 5The Social Reckoning9 episodes · 3 in the last 7 days
Latest: Circuit Gays · 5 Oct · Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
- 6Dune: Part Three8 episodes · 1 in the last 7 days
Latest: Circuit Gays · 5 Oct · Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
- 7Ink5 episodes · 2 in the last 7 days
Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct · Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday(audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 8Project Hail Mary5 episodes · 2 in the last 7 days
Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct · Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday(audio) (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
