Best Visual Effects
Which film will win Best Visual Effects?Dune: Part Three leads with a 56% market-implied chance on Polymarket, 30 points ahead of Project Hail Mary (26%).Biggest move this week: The Odyssey, up 5 points (now 17%).Kalshi's 2027 Best Visual Effects market is written as a Best Makeup and Hairstyling contract, so this page shows only Polymarket's prices until Kalshi corrects it.
Odds movement
Market-implied chance to win for the 5 contenders with the highest average price now, Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.- Dune: Part Three56%
- Project Hail Mary26%
- The Odyssey17%
- Godzilla Minus Zero6%
- Avengers: Doomsday1%
Show the numbers
| Day | Dune: Part Three · Polymarket | Project Hail Mary · Polymarket | The Odyssey · Polymarket | Godzilla Minus Zero · Polymarket | Avengers: Doomsday · Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 56% | 26% | 17% | 6% | 1% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 56% | 26% | 12% | 9% | 3% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 55% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 55% | 26% | 10% | 10% | 3% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 54% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 54% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 55% | 27% | 10% | 10% | 3% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 53% | 22% | 14% | 10% | 5% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 59% | 22% | 7% | 5% | 5% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 61% | 26% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
6 contenders
Each number is a market-implied chance: the price of a contract that pays $1 if the film wins, read as a percentage (49¢ reads as 49%).Under it: the change of the price over 24 hours, from the site’s saved prices, in percentage points, and the contract price in cents.The bar behind a row is its chance on a 0 to 100 scale. Beside the number: the volume traded on the platforms behind it.On wide screens, a small line shows the last 30 days and the change over the last 7.Ranked by the Polymarket price.Kalshi prices are left out of this category (see the note above).Podcast buzz
Most named on awards podcasts in the last 30 days
Talk vs price
Across: episodes that named it in the last 30 days.Up: its price on the market the switch names.Not a prediction or a recommendation.- 1The Odyssey15 episodes · 3 in the last 7 days
Latest: Awards Chatter · 5 Oct · John Leguizamo - 'The Odyssey' [LIVE](audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 2Dune: Part Three9 episodes · 1 in the last 7 days
Latest: Circuit Gays · 5 Oct · Season Kickoff: Fall Festivals & The Early Oscars Draft (opens in a new tab)
- 3Project Hail Mary5 episodes · 2 in the last 7 days
Latest: The Next Best Picture Podcast · 5 Oct · Episode 510 - Mailbag Monday(audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 4Godzilla Minus Zero3 episodes
Latest: Awards Radar: The Podcast · 1 Oct · Joey and Kate Talk About the New York Film Festival, Potential 'Digger' Audience Reactions, and More - #310 (opens in a new tab)
- 5Avengers: Doomsday3 episodes
Latest: The Big Picture · 28 Sep · Old Movies vs. New Movies: How ‘Avengers: Endgame Encore’ Beat Brad Pitt, Robert Pattinson, and an Awesome Weekend Movie Lineup(audio) (opens in a new tab)
- 6Spider-Man: Brand New Day2 episodes
Latest: Academy Watch · 3 Oct · October Oscars State of Play (opens in a new tab)
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
