The Debut
Best Original Screenplay contender
To win Best Original Screenplay
Number 2 of 18 by average priceKalshi20%Polymarket19%
To be nominated for Best Original Screenplay
Number 2 of 18 by Kalshi pricePrice history
Market-implied chance to win, the average of Kalshi and Polymarket at the end of each day.Prices at the end of each day, New York time. A day without a new price keeps the day before’s. On a day a Kalshi market ends thin (nobody bidding, or more than 10¢ between buy and sell offers), its close is the last traded price.Days before 2 October 2026 come from each platform’s published price history; later days from the prices this site records.Show the numbers
| Day | Average |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 20% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 18% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | 23% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | 35% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | 30% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | 20% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | 10% |
| 22 Aug 2026 | 12% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 8% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | 17% |
Also in the running
Podcast buzz
Named in 6 episodes of awards podcasts in the last 30 days, 1 in the last 7
The Next Best Picture Podcast · 4 Oct
The Awards Watch Podcast · 22 Sep
The Big Picture · 22 Sep
The Rolling Tape · 16 Sep
The Awards Watch Podcast · 11 Sep
Awards Watch Podcast Ep. 362: 53rd Telluride Film Festival Wrap-Up (opens in a new tab)
Awards Radar: The Podcast · 11 Sep
Mike, Mike, and Oscar · 9 Sep
Telluride & Venice Open Up The Oscar Race - ORC 9/8/26 (opens in a new tab)
Prestige Junkie · 8 Sep
From what is said on 28 film and awards podcasts (an episode’s title and show notes until it is transcribed), updated daily (last checked 6 Oct). A mention means the film or person is named, whatever the category or context. It is not a prediction or a recommendation.
The 28 podcasts
The Next Best Picture Podcast · Frontrunners and Challengers · The Awards Watch Podcast · Awards Circuit · Prestige Junkie · Little Gold Men · The Big Picture · Screen Talk · The Awardist · Awards Radar: The Podcast · Awards Central Podcast · Oscars Outsider · Awards Chatter · The Envelope · Doc Talk · Kermode & Mayo’s Take · The Film Comment Podcast · Filmspotting · Team Deakins · Art of the Cut · Soundtracking with Edith Bowman · Scriptnotes · Mike, Mike, and Oscar · Lights Camera What’s The Action? · The Rolling Tape · Circuit Gays · Academy Watch · The Town
All 18 contenders for Best Original Screenplay
Market data, not advice.Prices are what traders paid on Kalshi and Polymarket, shown per platform or as their average; they are not predictions or recommendations.
